The NIE Facade

Critiquing the US National Intelligence Estimate

The NIE that was released in late 2007 stated that the US intelligence community believes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Fair enough, but why does America's allies, namely the UK and Israel, disagree with this report? It is my belief that the NIE was written with the intention of giving the United States a reason to not aggressively pursue Iran's nuclear weapons program

Its no secret that there has been an ongoing battle between US intelligence and Vice President Dick Cheney and his neo-con advisors. Cheney has been on the "Bomb Iran" bandwagon for a few years now. He has made no attempt to hide his feelings on the matter. Bush, after the Iraq fiasco can hardly risk being wrong again. His presidency is already in shambles. Not to mention, it is an open secret that the US military could not sustain a land campaign into Iran. That leaves an air attack as the only plausible military option, as it is clear economic sanctions have not been very effective to this point.

However, it is still the belief of the US and its allies that a nuclear Iran poses a monumental threat to Europe, Israel, and the United States. Iran has become a regional power and has made no attempt to hide its anti-US feelings. With international opinion of the US at a historic low and public opinion in the US becoming increasingly anti-war, the ability for the United States to engage in another military adventure in the Middle East is almost nill. Iran knows this and Israel knows this. There is no better time for Iran to be exerting its influence. Its anti-Israeli rhetoric certainly does not affect its standing in the Muslim world, and its increasingly overt support for Hezbollah has become a thorn in the side of the US and Israel.

On top of that Iran recently launched off a rocket and declared that it was the first step in the Islamic Republic's new space program. HA! What a load of bullshit. You know what else rockets of that type can be used for other than putting satellites in orbit. You guessed....carrying nuclear warheads. Interestingly enough, the US and Israel aren't alone in their suspicion here. Russia itself is rather suspicious of Iran's intentions. The thought of having another nuclear power in its neighborhood is not one that Russia is likely to enjoy.

So, back to the main point of the NIE being a load of BS. Iran is going to get bombed. Israel bombed Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1983. They have the military capability to launch an air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and they arguably have the domestic political will to do so. When you survive a holocaust, you don't look the other way when another one is repeatedly threated upon you. Why would Bush bomb Iran and bring even more ruin to his presidency when Isreal is going to do it anyways? A military confrontation with the US is not something that is in Iran's best interest. Despite all of Ahmadenijad's sabre rattling he knows that the US military would bring ruin to Iran. With upwards of two carrier strike groups within range of the gulf at any given time and US air bases in Turkey and Iraq, and strategic bomber bases out of reach (in the US midwest) Iran could be brought to its knees without having to send in thousands of US troops. People would be wise not to forget the superiority of US air power.

Of course the question here is whether or not Iran will make good on its threat to bring holy hell down upon all US bases in the region.

Allowing the NIE to be falsified puts the pressure on Israel. Israel will have to go it alone or face a nuclear Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that "Israel needs to do everything to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear threat against it" and that "We need to act in the spirit of Menachem Begin, who defied the entire world and with a bold step prevented Iraq from arming itself with nuclear weapons." Pushing Israel to attack puts Iran into a bit of a bind. IF the US attacked then Iran could unleash its ten thousand martyrs or whatever they have (actually their military is not as professional as people think) upon the US, and claim that they are acting in self-defense. But, if Israel goes it alone, Iran can't retaliate against US forces and claim self-defense. They may very well claim that, but it wouldn't be the PR victory that they badly need. Of course, their military and whats left of their nuclear program, will be destroyed by the US and the US will have been acting in self-defense. Its a lose-lose situation for Iran. The only one who looks like a villain is Israel, and lets face it, even if they don't attack, they're still villains in the eyes of the Muslim world.

For more reading...
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200712u/nie-iran
http://debka.com/article.php?aid=1320