The Underreported Nightmare

If Iran gets the bomb, they can't very well launch it or give it to a terrorist group without their fingerprints being all over it. If they launch, then their victim will retaliate in like. They can't easily go the terrorist route. Why? Because if a terrorist detonates an Iranian nuke all anyone has to do is take a look at the radioactive signature and then examine Iran's nuclear facilities and they can tell whether or not the the Nuke was Iranian in origin.

The real worry isn't a nuclear state launching against you. The real worry is a jihadist with a nuke in the back of his van in downtown Manhattan. While Putin has admitted that Russia did in fact lose a few nukes during the chaotic breakup of the Soviet Union, its not Russia that is the worry. Its Pakistan.

The Northwestern provinces, which include Pashtun tribal areas are a virtual no-go zone for the Pakistani army. Its been a military quagmire for years now. The area has become a haven for fundamentalists and Taliban sympathizers. With Al Qaeda camping out in Pakistan's backyard and attempting to off Musharraf whenever possible, Pakistan is in a dire mess. There is a creeping talibanization of Pakistan, an increasing hatred of Musharraf among most Pakistanis, and lets not forget the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, Pakistan's greatest proponent of democracy. With increasing suspicion that the Pakistani ISI (Inter-Services-Intelligence) is becoming increasingly ssympathetic to the taleban and Al Qaeda one has to ask that difficult question. Are Pakistan's nukes secure? The US has been asking this publicly for a few months now. Musharraf has tried to reassure the international community that Pakistan has a stringent nuclear doctrine. But, as Musharraf becomes increasingly isolated at home, he can't very well admit to the world that he is worried about the security of Pakistan's nuclear arms. Such a statement would throw the US and its allies (especially India) into a panic. A panic that has no precedent.

There are some press reports that the US has already moved in Special Forces units within range of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. This issue should be the worlds gravest concern. It eclipses the Iranian nuclear program completely. Nukes in the hands of terrorists change all the rules. A nations first and second strike capabilities are meaningless. You can't retaliate against an organization with no home base and you can't strike a nation that had its nukes stolen. Well, you can, but the fact is that that is no measure of deterrence for the jihadists who are going to detonate that nuke in London, New York, or Washington DC. The world desperately needs to wake up and at the very least pay more attention to what is happening in Pakistan. The potential for a fundamentalist coup is growing, and for gods sake, there are nukes involved!